In the case of the Pacific, even if the disaster was not predicted by the tools we think can effectively foresee the future, precautions still could have been taken in case a disaster were to hit. Taleb describes moving people away from the coasts, and modifying house and building structure to be better able to weather the effects of an earthquake or tsunami. Taleb is right in his thinking. We need to take a general approach to events rather than an overly specific one, and have the capability to foresee black swan events, but at the same time, we must also use the predictive tools we have to make further adjustments if we actually foresee a black swan. It is most effective for us to consistently prepare ourselves in case a black swan event occurs, but we must also try to see them coming to gain specific and valuable insight.	
	The recent disaster in Japan has taken over the news and our hearts. But if black swan theory was incorporated, could the consequences have been lessened? Most certainly. The earthquake affords us the opportunity to witness a black swan event in present time. The earthquake was a surprise, it was high impact, and people tried to rationalize its unexpectedness in hindsight. But the earthquake was not expected. Japan had not had an earthquake of that magnitude in hundreds of years. So what should they have done? They should have prepared for and kept in mind the possibility of a black swan event occurring, just as what should have done in the Pacific. But Taleb focuses mainly on the idea of preparing for a black swan event, and dissuades predicting it. But a mix of preparation and prediction can be the most effective method. Preparatory methods should have been taken in Japan, as Taleb would advise, but prediction is still an important tactic. Looking for a disaster can give a country, like Japan, further insight on how to prepare for a specific event. Though overall preparation can shield countries from damage, specific analysis has significant value. The barbell theory is indicative of this, as it lets one manage their business specifically, while still leaving space open for preparation for black swan events.
Another thing we can learn from reading Black Swan is being well prepared for unexpected errors and different ways to prepare for those, such as using a barbell strategy for investing. The Barbell strategy says that because of uncertainty and possible prediction errors when investing you should be “hyperconservative” and “hyperagrresive”. This means that you need to invest most of your money in safe, stable, and reliable investments and then invest a little bit of your money in higher risk investments. The advantages of using an investing strategy like this is that it minimizes any exposure you would have to a negative black swan event. As Taleb states if you put “85-90 percent in extremely safe instruments, like Treasury bills—as safe a class of instruments as you can manage to find on this planet. 